Trend Analysis of Road Traffic Crashes in Oyo State, Nigeria From 2020 To 2024

Abstract

This study examines the temporal trends and key characteristics of road traffic crashes (RTCs) in Oyo State, Nigeria, from 2020 to 2024, to identify crash patterns, high-risk corridors, vehicle types most involved, and principal causative factors to support evidence-based road safety interventions. A descriptive research design was adopted using secondary data obtained from the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), Oyo State Command, covering five years (2020–2024). The dataset comprised 2,900 recorded crashes involving 4,840 vehicles and 19,397 persons across all major road corridors in the state. Key variables measured included annual crash frequency, fatalities, injuries, vehicle class and category, causative factors, and route-level crash distribution. Data were analysed using descriptive statistical techniques, including frequency counts, percentage distributions, trend analysis, and graphical illustrations, processed through Microsoft Excel and SPSS. Crash frequency rose from 602 in 2020 to a peak of 674 in 2022, declined to 495 in 2023, and resurged to 501 in 2024. The Ibadan Metropolis, Ogbomoso–Oyo, and Lagos–Ibadan corridors collectively accounted for over 43% of all crashes. Motorcycles, cars, and buses were the most frequently involved vehicle types, while speed violation alone accounted for 48% of all causative factors. Human factors collectively explained over 80% of all recorded crashes. This study provides the first dedicated, state-specific, multi-dimensional trend analysis of RTCs in Oyo State for the post-pandemic period 2020–2024, offering corridor-level, vehicle-specific, and causation-integrated evidence that is directly actionable for policymakers, transport planners, and the FRSC.